8 March 2022: Jay O’Neil provides a quick analysis on the Black Sea situation

8 March 2022: Jay O’Neil provides a quick analysis on the Black Sea situation


Russia produces about 75 million tonnes of wheat and exports around 35 million tonnes (17 % of global trade).
The Russian wheat crop will not be lost to the world. Many may refuse to purchase it; but others will (India, China, Egypt, Bangladesh, Brazil).
Due to the relatively cheap price of Russian wheat, it will seep out into areas of need. Logistics may be messy, but it will move.

Ukraine: Normally produces 33 mmt and exports 24 mmt. (12% of global trade).
This is winter wheat that has already been planted. But its harvest and ability to move into export channels is very questionable. The world will likely loose much of this supply.
So how does the world replace 24 mmt of wheat; it doesn’t.
Maybe 10 mmt could be taken from U.S. carryout stocks. 1 mmt from Canada, 2-3 mmt from Australia, 5 mmt from the EU. But this only makes up 19 mmt of the 24. The rest (5-6 mmt) has to come from rationing.
So who gets rationed ? Spells trouble for cash strapped MENA countries.

Russia: produces 15mmt and exports 4.5mmt. This will not be lost to world buyers; especially not to China.

Ukraine: Normally produces 42 mmt and exports 33.5 (16.5 % of global trade). This crop is not yet planed and likely will not get in the ground or be available to world markets in 2022/23.
Who fills in the gap ? USA 10mmt, Brazil 3mmt, South Africa 1.5mmt, Argentina 1mmt.? Even if so, this leaves a deficient of 18mmt.
The corn shortfall cannot be supplemented by feed wheat, because there is none available.
An 18mmt or larger shortfall in corn trade therefore has to be resolved through outright rationing.
The world needs to consume 1.5 % less corn/feed grain. This means less ethanol and or fewer animals to feed/lower meat consumption.

Maybe price inflation will take care of much of this ????

The loss of the Ukrainian sunflower crop and sunoil shipments can only be partially made up with additional exports of Palm this year. But there will be a net shortfall. Next year potential expansion of Soybeans in North and South America can offset most of the need, if plantings expand..
In the mean time there will be an cooking oil shortage.
This is going to be a very challenging year and not everyone will get the commodities they want. A Global recession is also a real possibility.

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